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WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?
The notion of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically describes something is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand will be the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly based on economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It can be a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served within an efficient manner. It is normally expressed because the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The "market" is defined at the given level inside the value chain. There may be latent demand with the retail level, in the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. better levels of the value chain being always smaller as opposed to P.I.E. of levels at lower levels with the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).
The latent need for handheld household floor cleaners is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand may be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from the quantity of factors, like the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior for the a part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically greater than actual sales in a country market.
For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of "unit quantities", only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity isn't made, though one is implied). The units used within this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and never adjusted for future dynamics as a swap rates. If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way when compared with recent experience, actually sales also can exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically more than actual sales as there in many cases are distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the degree of latent demand.
As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective in the players or products involved. If fact, all the current services or products on the market can cease to exist within their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and the gamers could be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will be a worldwide latent demand for handheld household vacuum cleaners at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, as well as the actual identity with the players involved, while very important to certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.
THE METHODOLOGY
In order to estimate the latent need for handheld household floor cleaners over a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before using the approach, one needs a basic theory from where such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely around the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there exists an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of an country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level in the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium is realized. For firms to serve a market, they have to perceive a latent demand and become capable of serve that demand at a minimal return. The one most significant variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels in the value chain). Other factors that will pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for that product in question.
Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption continues to be a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one part of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the common propensity to consume would fall. The common propensity to eat will be the level of consumption divided by the degree of income, or slope from the line through the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it being true within the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the low the common propensity to consume. This kind of consumption function is labeled "A" inside the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated how the marginal propensity to take was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" inside the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to use is constant.
Is it declining or perhaps it constant? A variety of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, within the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter time horizon, the more consumption can rely on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to use is much more constant. Similarly, inside the long run, households, industries or countries without any income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). Even though the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, within this study a really particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, were thinking about the latent demand for handheld household vacuum cleaners across some 230 countries. The smallest have less than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of the counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of the countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for handheld household vacuum cleaners. So, latent demand inside long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to get different propensities to eat (including located on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can be the cause of differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).
Given this overriding philosophy, I'll now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for handheld household vacuum cleaners. Since ICON Group has asked me to make use of this methodology with a large amount of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to some wide number of categories, not just handheld household vacuum cleaners.
Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection
Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define "efficiently served". Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, We've found the optimal approach is always to assume that certain key countries are much more likely to get at or near efficiency than others. These countries are given greater weight than these inside the estimation of latent demand when compared with other countries which is why no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, We've found the assumption that this world's highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for "efficiency". High aggregate income alone isn't sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and will not assumed to become efficient). Aggregate income might be operationalized in a very quantity of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or amount of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are types of countries with high income per capita,... --This text refers on the Digital edition.

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